Compiled by Robb
Murray for the
Chicago Science
Field Trips Club
http://science.meetup.com/77/calendar/7788389/
© May 19, 2008
Robb Murray
(773) 975-8020
ctoncall@aol.com
Your Call Always
Welcome!
60
Predictions and 5 Questions about
Science and Technology in the Year 2050
Based on The
Next Fifty Years,
edited by John Brockman, (Vintage, 2002)
These
notes were made by Robb Murray using oral dictation
into Dragon Naturally Speaking software,
not by typing from scratch.
TOPICS
TIME PERSPECTIVE 1
HEALTH and LONGEVITY -- 9 3
PHYSICS and MATH 9 4
GENOMICS -- 4 5
BIOLOGY -- 6 6
TRANSPORATION -- 2 7
INFO and COMMUNICATION -- 7 7
MANUFACTURING 5 8
EDUCATION -- 6 8
QUALITY OF SOCIAL LIFE -- 6 9
COSMOLOGY and ASTRONOMY -- 6
A FEW DISCUSSION QUESTIONS -- 3
When you know where youre
going, getting there can be half the fun. If you dont, you can suffer
Future Shock:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ghzomm15yE
Great previews three 15-minute videos:
Artificial
life is scheduled to be booted up in the year 2008.
Are we mentally prepared?
The extreme speed
of R&D; humans are converging
with machines Ray Kurzweil:
http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/38
Living to
1,000 years of age; How? Why? Who?
http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/39
Impossible
forms of cellular life recently discovered on earth:
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/80
TIME PERSPECTIVE -- What can happen in
just 50 years?
In 1900, many
scientists did not believe in the existence of individual atoms. No one knew what made the sun shine. Physicists
were interested in finding the properties of ether. No galaxies beyond the Milky Way were believed to
exist. It was still a Newtonian world. Horses
were everywhere, and no one had ever succeeded with a flying machine.
By 1950 we had a
completely expanded science vocabulary, and Relativity, and the atom bomb. Commercial airlines were rivaling the railroad
companies, and television was coming. The
Space Age was soon to begin.
Now, soon after the
year 2000, computers have been used in mathematics to solve the elusive Four Color Problem
and Fermats Last Theorem. The human
genome has been sequenced. We have blown
completely past and through the usage of audio CDs, fax machines and reading in bookshops
(which had become replaced by Wi-Fi surfing at Starbucks). Animals have been cloned.
The web and handheld devices (cell phones, GPS, iPods and Blackberries) are everywhere. Software is moving to open source and to
thin-client, web-hosted versions.
What will we have in
the year 2050? Here are 60 predictions from 25 top cognoscenti made just after the turn of
the Millennium.
These predictions are considered
conservative
by those who offered them.
1.
Advanced
pharmacology will allow the removal of traumatic memories. You could also take a pill
before, say, a childs birthday party to
be able to remember it in particularly vivid detail later.
2.
Human brains will be
supplemented with added neurons, just as procedures with rats are now doing.
3.
The body will be
incorporated with germanium and silicon components. New
forms of human life will literally come about.
4.
Our genomes will be
in a national database, to which we must grant permission for doctors and others to
utilize. Patients will routinely have pharmacological screening of
their genomes to detect drug sensitivities.
5.
Like polymers and
wonder drugs in the 1930s, new materials, some incorporating living tissue, will be made
to spec to create apparent medical miracles.
6.
Like implanted
cochlea in the ear, the entire eye will be replaceable, and there will be a cultural
acceptance of bionic implants of many kinds.
7.
People's emotional
and other health vulnerabilities will be monitored by wearables, which have
already been piloted on astronauts. These will
note unusual numbers of eye blinks, furrowing of brows, sweat, skin galvanometric
readings, or temperature changes, which could signal onsets of difficulty. They will be worn using clothing, jewelry, and
eyeglasses
8.
Many diseases now
thought to be genetic or environmental in origin will be shown to be infectious diseases.
But the reigning gatekeepers in medical research will not allow the paradigm to shaft for
awhile.
The following chronic
diseases will be shown to arise from viral infection.
Prevention and treatment will be changed appropriately:
i.
multiple sclerosis,
ii.
Type II diabetes,
iii.
breast cancer,
iv.
atherosclerosis,
v.
Alzheimer's Disease,
vi.
schizophrenia,
vii.
bipolar depression,
viii.
prostate cancer.
9.
Genetic analysis
will show people to have vulnerabilities to diseases.
1.
In mathematics,
virtual unreality machines will allow computers to very quickly work through huge
amounts of data, lists of functions, prime numbers, etc.
2.
The problems of
interest to physics will be on the quantum level, replacing astronomy and mechanics as the
sources. We may know whether quantum theory is true as now stated and assumed or whether
there can be physical experiments to prove it (string theory proof is so far considered
theoretically impossible).
3.
The Clay Mathematics
Institute in Cambridge, MA has offered seven big challenges to mathematics, each paying a
million dollars if solved. By 2050, there will
have been two of these proved, one disproved and three remaining inconclusive. One of the challenges is the Riemann Hypothesis,
which relates to nontrivial zeros in a particular equations output. It will be proven true.
4.
We may still not
know the answer to the 1950s question as to why the proton and neutron are of almost the
same mass with the neutron being slightly heavier.
5.
We will know whether
there is only one universe, with many parts, or a multi-verse with many universes. If the latter, we may learn whether these impact
each other gravitationally, or otherwise.
6.
It might become
theoretically possible to start a new universe in the laboratory by creating a black hole. If so, we will wonder whether our universe could be
the product of someone's lab experiment.
7.
We will learn
whether the laws of our universe are unique, and necessary to it, or whether they could
have begun differently, especially if there are found to have been repeated, sequential
Big Bangs.
8.
We may learn whether
the order of magnitude of the ultimate structure of space & time is 10-33
meters (on the Planck scale) or is even smaller by 10-22.
9.
In mathematics,
formal proofs will still be required, but direct checking of every part of the proof by
literal human calculations will not be important. Replicable
computer operations that yield the proof will be accepted.
Computers will also discover mathematical patterns that we might never find
by hand, and that will amaze us, as bystanders.
1.
The true tree
of life will be laid out with virtual completeness.
The process will involve large amounts of automation as genomic checks are made on
links that have thus far been postulated only by physical resemblances. Genomic analysis by computers will show whether,
say, the rhinoceros is actually closer to the whale than the pig in its origin.
2.
Genomic analysis
will be assisted by quantum computing advances involving quantum topology, quantum algebra, and quantum number theory. Then, biology will suggest many patterns for
exploration in mathematics.
3.
There will be
piece-interchangeability between animals and plants.
4.
Genetic changes made
to an embryonic or zygote organism will be snapped into place much like copy code in
todays computer programs.
1.
We will find out
what makes a free living cell alive. Something
makes it into an autonomous agent that is capable of doing work in the Carnot cycle sense,
where displacement is accomplished through a resistance.
We will come to understand this latent organization.
2.
The much-disliked
Gaia hypothesis of Richard Dawkins is now accepted in changed form and is called Earth
System Science. It is the idea that life as a
unity tends to create trends to stabilize the conditions of its own survivability, a sort
of supra-genetic phenomenon.
3.
Trans-species brain
tissue transplants will bring medical cures, as pig brain already do for Parkinson's
today.
4.
Neural
transplantation will allow transhuman experiences, such as experiencing the
sensory experiences of being another organism. Subjects
will experience the strong smell of a hunting dog or the eyesight of an Eagle.
5.
The mind
of an animal will be readable through consulting libraries of brain activity patterns in
real-time comparisons.
6.
A volunteer human
woman will give birth to the clone of Lucy. An
ostrich egg will be the growing lab for a resurrected dinosaur. Extinct animals have already been brought to life
(example: a donkey-like animal extinct since the 1930s was recently born to a mule
impregnated with a hollowed-out cows egg cell filled with the cellular interior of
this extinct animal). Plus, birds have already
been made to grow tooth buds, and snakes have already grown legs.
1.
Compact energy
delivery will result in a quiet triad vehicle offering cheap land, water and air transport
for everyone.
2.
Scramjets will fly
us into orbit as civilian space travelers.
1.
Computing will be
accelerated by one-atom-wide carbon wires, with boron nitride insulation, manufactured by
nanobots.
2.
Quantum computing
will make use off superposition and entanglement to create movements.
3.
Computing will move
away from the use of files. More fluid data
protocols will be used.
4.
Everyone will have a
worldwide communicator, computer, cell phone, and GPS unit all combined. It will be watch-sized and provide 3-D holographic
displays in thin air, like R2D2s device in Star
Wars. It will even help answer questions,
such as whether you would likely have a better time at this or that restaurant, movie,
etc. It can use libraries of past preferences, as Amazon and Netflix do now.
5.
It will be common
for people to speak questions aloud and for the answers to come back from the walls.
6.
The Beam
will come into existence, a newly unified information utility in the
cybersphere. Individuals will each have
complete control over all documents, phone calls, conversations, etc., that they have
handled.
7.
Individuals will be
trackable at all times and there will be a need to protect one's home as one's castle.
1.
Son of
Moores Law (doubling of genomic decoding speed and efficiency every 27 months)
will give a consumer cost of $160 for the genomic sequencing of oneself or that of any
other person or organism by 2050.
2.
Engineering
departments are now investigating biology the way they used to investigate architecture
and mechanics.
3.
The human brain and
body are being reverse-engineered with the goal of creating fixes literally thousands of
times more effective than the natively-evolved capacities.
4.
Bioengineered
bacteria will excrete fuel, drugs, etc., resulting in dramatic cost reduction.
5.
Bacteria will
excrete fabrication pieces for nano machines: cogs, belts,
bridges, wheels and axles.
1.
Because information
has already become so easy to get, it will become increasingly cheap and devalued. Education will emphasize a learner's ability to ask
useful questions and to think critically about information that purports to answer them.
2.
Standard education
will mainly occur in small groups. Teachers
will be experienced in their fields and will have "been there and done that." They will reward curiosity and aptitude more than
by the grading of tests.
3.
Intelligence
will be seen as the ability to quickly reach the learning limits of an experience.
4.
Except in the quantitative disciplines, higher-education
testing will no longer be used to measure certitude and the supplying of exact answers, as
today -- todays politicians want simple points of view, teachers want correct
answers, businesspeople want solutions, venture capitalists want profits, the media wants
viewer eyes on the screen, certifying agencies want test scores. But knowledge will later be seen as having various
probability levels, with varying truth status likelihood sand varying
probabilities of data and their various sources.
5.
The brain will
register discrete, observable changes in imaging before, during, and after learning events
-- while one, say, learns a musical
instrument. Such biofeedback will
allow us to better engineer training experiences.
6.
Government will get
out of the educational enterprise, as entrenched vested interests and methods are
outstripped very rapidly by these new capabilities.
1.
The population will
be shaped by demographic engineering, mainly the choices of parents.
2.
We may come to see
our bodies as part of the industrial infrastructure, and there will be literal and
intentional designations for the terms subhuman and superhuman.
3.
Nature over
Nurture will be shown to be far stronger than heretofore relieved. Identical twins have many differences even from
birth.
4.
Genetic screening of newborns will show likelihood
for criminal potential.
5.
Forensic science
will offer minute examination of brain events and will be able to determine whether a
crime was premeditated or was a true crime of passion, a temporarily insane or
emotionally deranged act. Any conviction will be a simple matter of fact, like producing a
time-stamped photograph of someone running a red light.
6.
Social and political
policy proposals will be run on complex flight simulators.
1.
Humankind will not
succeed in visiting any other galaxies by 2050.
2.
A two-year
expedition to Mars will take place. The water
and CO2 on its flat surface will be separated into H2 and O2
by electrolysis and used to fill fuel tanks for the voyage back home before anyone even
goes to the planet. Genomic analysis of any
microorganisms found could take place remotely
3.
A telescope
dedicated to finding planets in our Milky Way Galaxy suitable for sustaining life will
create very high-resolution images, using four separately-flying gathering points, all
focused together. Later, another scope with
its four sensors flying 300 kilometers apart will create tremendous resolution for finding
such planets in galaxies that are many light-years away.