ROBB'S PROJECTS

Compiled by Robb Murray for the

Chicago Science Field Trips Club

http://science.meetup.com/77/calendar/7788389/

© May 19, 2008 – Robb Murray

 (773) 975-8020    ctoncall@aol.com

 

Your Call Always Welcome!

 

Where Will Sciencee Be in 50 Years?

60 Predictions and 5 Questions about
Science and Technology in the Year 2050

Based on The Next Fifty Years,
edited by John Brockman, (Vintage, 2002)

 

These notes were made by Robb Murray using oral dictation
into Dragon Naturally Speaking software,
not by typing from scratch.

 

          TOPICS

TIME PERSPECTIVE  1

HEALTH and LONGEVITY -- 9   3

PHYSICS and MATH – 9   4

GENOMICS -- 4   5

BIOLOGY -- 6   6

TRANSPORATION -- 2   7

INFO and COMMUNICATION -- 7   7

MANUFACTURING – 5   8

EDUCATION -- 6   8

QUALITY OF SOCIAL LIFE -- 6   9

COSMOLOGY and ASTRONOMY -- 6

A FEW DISCUSSION QUESTIONS -- 3


When you know where you’re going, getting there can be half the fun.  If you don’t, you can suffer
Future Shock:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ghzomm15yE

 

Great previews –three 15-minute videos:

Artificial life is scheduled to be booted up in the year 2008.
Are we mentally prepared?

The extreme speed of R&D; humans are converging
with machines –
Ray Kurzweil:

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/38

 

Living to 1,000 years of age; How? Why? Who?

http://www.ted.com/talks/view/id/39

 

“Impossible” forms of cellular life recently discovered on earth:

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/80

 

 

TIME PERSPECTIVE -- What can happen in just 50 years? 

 

In 1900, many scientists did not believe in the existence of individual atoms.  No one knew what made the sun shine. Physicists were interested in finding the properties of “ether”.  No galaxies beyond the Milky Way were believed to exist. It was still a Newtonian world.  Horses were everywhere, and no one had ever succeeded with a flying machine.

 

By 1950 we had a completely expanded science vocabulary, and Relativity, and the atom bomb.  Commercial airlines were rivaling the railroad companies, and television was coming.  The Space Age was soon to begin. 

 

Now, soon after the year 2000, computers have been used in mathematics to solve the elusive Four Color Problem and Fermat’s Last Theorem.  The human genome has been sequenced.  We have blown completely past and through the usage of audio CDs, fax machines and reading in bookshops (which had become replaced by Wi-Fi surfing at Starbuck’s). Animals have been cloned. The web and handheld devices (cell phones, GPS, iPods and Blackberries) are everywhere.  Software is moving to open source and to thin-client, web-hosted versions.

 

What will we have in the year 2050? Here are 60 predictions from 25 top cognoscenti made just after the turn of the Millennium.

 

These predictions are considered conservative
by those who offered them.


 

HEALTH and LONGEVITY -- 9

1.    Advanced pharmacology will allow the removal of traumatic memories. You could also take a pill before, say,  a child’s birthday party to be able to remember it in particularly vivid detail later.

2.    Human brains will be supplemented with added neurons, just as procedures with rats are now doing.

3.    The body will be incorporated with germanium and silicon components.  New forms of human life will literally come about.

4.    Our genomes will be in a national database, to which we must grant permission for doctors and others to utilize.  Patients  will routinely have pharmacological screening of their genomes to detect drug sensitivities.

5.    Like polymers and wonder drugs in the 1930s, new materials, some incorporating living tissue, will be made to spec to create apparent medical miracles.

6.    Like implanted cochlea in the ear, the entire eye will be replaceable, and there will be a cultural acceptance of bionic implants of many kinds.

7.    People's emotional and other health vulnerabilities will be monitored by “wearables”, which have already been piloted on astronauts.  These will note unusual numbers of eye blinks, furrowing of brows, sweat, skin galvanometric readings, or temperature changes, which could signal onsets of difficulty.  They will be worn using clothing, jewelry, and eyeglasses

8.    Many diseases now thought to be genetic or environmental in origin will be shown to be infectious diseases. But the reigning gatekeepers in medical research will not allow the paradigm to shaft for awhile. 

The following chronic diseases will be shown to arise from viral infection.  Prevention and treatment will be changed appropriately:

                                                             i.      multiple sclerosis,

                                                          ii.      Type II diabetes,

                                                        iii.      breast cancer,

                                                        iv.      atherosclerosis,

                                                          v.      Alzheimer's Disease,

                                                        vi.      schizophrenia,

                                                     vii.      bipolar depression,

                                                   viii.      prostate cancer.

9.    Genetic analysis will show people to have vulnerabilities to diseases.

PHYSICS and MATH – 9

1.    In mathematics, virtual unreality machines will allow computers to very quickly work through huge amounts of data, lists of functions, prime numbers, etc.

2.    The problems of interest to physics will be on the quantum level, replacing astronomy and mechanics as the sources. We may know whether quantum theory is true as now stated and assumed or whether there can be physical experiments to prove it (string theory proof is so far considered theoretically impossible).

3.    The Clay Mathematics Institute in Cambridge, MA has offered seven big challenges to mathematics, each paying a million dollars if solved.  By 2050, there will have been two of these proved, one disproved and three remaining inconclusive.  One of the challenges is the Riemann Hypothesis, which relates to nontrivial zeros in a particular equation’s output.  It will be proven true.

4.    We may still not know the answer to the 1950s question as to why the proton and neutron are of almost the same mass with the neutron being slightly heavier.

5.    We will know whether there is only one universe, with many parts, or a multi-verse with many universes.  If the latter, we may learn whether these impact each other gravitationally, or otherwise.

6.    It might become theoretically possible to start a new universe in the laboratory by creating a black hole.  If so, we will wonder whether our universe could be the product of someone's lab experiment.

7.    We will learn whether the laws of our universe are unique, and necessary to it, or whether they could have begun differently, especially if there are found to have been repeated, sequential Big Bangs.

8.    We may learn whether the order of magnitude of the ultimate structure of space & time is 10-33 meters (on the Planck scale) or is even smaller by 10-22.

9.    In mathematics, formal proofs will still be required, but direct checking of every part of the proof by literal human calculations will not be important.  Replicable computer operations that yield the proof will be accepted.  Computers will also discover mathematical patterns that we might never find “by hand,” and that will amaze us, as bystanders.

GENOMICS -- 4

1.    The “true tree of life” will be laid out with virtual completeness.  The process will involve large amounts of automation as genomic checks are made on links that have thus far been postulated only by physical resemblances.  Genomic analysis by computers will show whether, say, the rhinoceros is actually closer to the whale than the pig in its origin.

2.    Genomic analysis will be assisted by quantum computing advances involving quantum topology, quantum  algebra, and quantum number theory.  Then, biology will suggest many patterns for exploration in mathematics.

3.    There will be piece-interchangeability between animals and plants. 

4.    Genetic changes made to an embryonic or zygote organism will be snapped into place much like copy code in today’s computer programs. 

BIOLOGY -- 6

1.    We will find out what makes a free living cell alive.  Something makes it into an autonomous agent that is capable of doing work in the Carnot cycle sense, where displacement is accomplished through a resistance.  We will come to understand this “latent” organization.

2.    The much-disliked Gaia hypothesis of Richard Dawkins is now accepted in changed form and is called Earth System Science.  It is the idea that life as a unity tends to create trends to stabilize the conditions of its own survivability, a sort of supra-genetic phenomenon.

3.    Trans-species brain tissue transplants will bring medical cures, as pig brain already do for Parkinson's today.

4.    Neural transplantation will allow transhuman experiences, such as “experiencing” the sensory experiences of being another organism.  Subjects will experience the strong smell of a hunting dog or the eyesight of an Eagle.

5.    The “mind” of an animal will be readable through consulting libraries of brain activity patterns in real-time comparisons.

6.    A volunteer human woman will give birth to the clone of Lucy.  An ostrich egg will be the growing lab for a resurrected dinosaur.  Extinct animals have already been brought to life (example: a donkey-like animal extinct since the 1930s was recently born to a mule impregnated with a hollowed-out cow’s egg cell filled with the cellular interior of this extinct animal).  Plus, birds have already been made to grow tooth buds, and snakes have already grown legs.

TRANSPORATION -- 2

1.    Compact energy delivery will result in a quiet triad vehicle offering cheap land, water and air transport for everyone.

2.    Scramjets will fly us into orbit as civilian space travelers.

INFO and COMMUNICATION -- 7

1.    Computing will be accelerated by one-atom-wide carbon wires, with boron nitride insulation, manufactured by nanobots.

2.    Quantum computing will make use off superposition and entanglement to create movements.

3.    Computing will move away from the use of files.  More fluid data protocols will be used.

4.    Everyone will have a worldwide communicator, computer, cell phone, and GPS unit all combined.  It will be watch-sized and provide 3-D holographic displays in thin air, like R2D2’s device in Star Wars.  It will even help answer questions, such as whether you would likely have a better time at this or that restaurant, movie, etc. It can use libraries of past preferences, as Amazon and Netflix do now.

5.    It will be common for people to speak questions aloud and for the answers to come back from the walls.

6.    “The Beam” will come into existence, a newly unified information utility in “the cybersphere”.  Individuals will each have complete control over all documents, phone calls, conversations, etc., that they have handled.

7.    Individuals will be trackable at all times and there will be a need to protect one's home as one's castle.

MANUFACTURING – 5

1.    “Son of Moore’s Law” (doubling of genomic decoding speed and efficiency every 27 months) will give a consumer cost of $160 for the genomic sequencing of oneself or that of any other person or organism by 2050.

2.    Engineering departments are now investigating biology the way they used to investigate architecture and mechanics. 

3.    The human brain and body are being reverse-engineered with the goal of creating fixes literally thousands of times more effective than the natively-evolved capacities.

4.    Bioengineered bacteria will excrete fuel, drugs, etc., resulting in dramatic cost reduction.

5.    Bacteria will excrete fabrication pieces for nano machines: cogs,  belts, bridges, wheels and axles.

EDUCATION -- 6

1.    Because information has already become so easy to get, it will become increasingly cheap and devalued.  Education will emphasize a learner's ability to ask useful questions and to think critically about information that purports to answer them.

2.    Standard education will mainly occur in small groups.  Teachers will be experienced in their fields and will have "been there and done that."  They will reward curiosity and aptitude more than by the grading of tests.

3.    “Intelligence” will be seen as the ability to quickly reach the learning limits of an experience.

4.    Except  in the quantitative disciplines, higher-education testing will no longer be used to measure certitude and the supplying of exact answers, as today -- today’s politicians want simple points of view, teachers want correct answers, businesspeople want solutions, venture capitalists want profits, the media wants viewer eyes on the screen, certifying agencies want test scores.  But knowledge will later be seen as having various probability levels, with varying “truth status” likelihood sand varying probabilities of data and their various sources.

5.    The brain will register discrete, observable changes in imaging before, during, and after learning events --  while one, say, learns a musical instrument.  Such “biofeedback” will allow us to better engineer training experiences.

6.    Government will get out of the educational enterprise, as entrenched vested interests and methods are outstripped very rapidly by these new capabilities.

QUALITY OF SOCIAL LIFE -- 6

1.    The population will be shaped by demographic engineering, mainly the choices of parents.

2.    We may come to see our bodies as part of the industrial infrastructure, and there will be literal and intentional designations for the terms “subhuman” and “superhuman”.

3.    “Nature over Nurture” will be shown to be far stronger than heretofore relieved.  Identical twins have many differences even from birth.

4.     Genetic screening of newborns will show likelihood for criminal potential.

5.    Forensic science will offer minute examination of brain events and will be able to determine whether a crime was premeditated or was a true “crime of passion,” a temporarily insane or emotionally deranged act. Any conviction will be a simple matter of fact, like producing a time-stamped photograph of someone running a red light. 

6.    Social and political policy proposals will be run on complex “flight simulators.”

COSMOLOGY and ASTRONOMY -- 6

1.    Humankind will not succeed in visiting any other galaxies by 2050.

2.    A two-year expedition to Mars will take place.  The water and CO2 on its flat surface will be separated into H2 and O2 by electrolysis and used to fill fuel tanks for the voyage back home before anyone even goes to the planet.  Genomic analysis of any microorganisms found could take place remotely

3.    A telescope dedicated to finding planets in our Milky Way Galaxy suitable for sustaining life will create very high-resolution images, using four separately-flying gathering points, all focused together.  Later, another scope with its four sensors flying 300 kilometers apart will create tremendous resolution for finding such planets in galaxies that are many light-years away.

4.    Some bacteria deep in the earth live at temperatures above the boiling point of water.  If similar subsurface organisms were found by robots on Mars (or on Europa, the moon of Saturn that has a watery ocean, or on Jupiter’s large moon, Titan) it would greatly increase a belief that other “intelligence” could exist fairly close to us.

5.    As Arthur C. Clarke once imagined, a spaceship going to another galaxy will be overtaken by another vessel with people inside who are of the grandchild generation to the original astronauts.  This could keep happening continually.  It may seem like a waste of attempts, but if we don't send the prior ships, we will not have the experience to be able to develop the faster ones.

6.    The two current main theories of cosmic evolution are
(1) the Natural Selection Hypothesis (that “our way” came about because of some sort of efficiency balance or physical inevitability – this theory is not provable), and
(2) the Entropic Principle, which postulates a large number of universes, each with unique and differing physical laws.


A FEW THOUGHT QUESTIONS -- 3

1.    Will we even have the ability to recognize other intelligences? 

2.    Other beings may package reality differently.  But they are now assumed also to be aware of the original Big Bang.  This would be one of our common points of understanding. But if the Big Bang is shown to have been a repeating cycle, what else besides the list of prime numbers could be used to recognize a signal from them, or for sending one to them to credentialize our intelligent status?

3.    Will the “7 Types of Intelligence” become more recognized and socially used than heretofore?

4.    Who will own and control all this new technology? Will it be in the hands of limited-liability corporations, with little to stop them from rampant exploitation of everyone else who has no access to their patents? 

5.    Specifically, what about the patenting of life forms, which became legal for the first time in the U.S. during the 1990s? What can stop aggressive economic marauders from taking over people’s rights to produce food, the “natural” way?

Important Film – “The Future of Food” – available from Netflix: http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1808718603/info

          It isn’t looking good for average people when it has become legal in the U.S. for a local government to use eminent domain to raze your house so that a private shopping mall can be put in because of the assumed taxes to flow from the business.

- - - -

A good general science news magazine I get via e-mail -- it reports on science news

long before it's in the papers. It's called World Science,  and comes out about

once a week. To join, just send an email with “subscribe” in the subject line

to emailnews@world-science.net.

 

The World Science website is at www.world-science.net.

 

Please contact Robb Murray to discuss, on the "enthusiasts'" level,

your interests in all aspects of Futuristics.

(773) 975-8020

ctoncall@aol.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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